It was a good week for hackers and techno geeks as new broke that the iPhone has been cracked. A teenager broke the code that only allows the phone to work on AT&T's network (which the iPhone has an exclusive contract with.) I'm personally torn on the issue. I love sticking it to telecommunications companies because they are far worse monopolies than Microsoft in my book - at least there is the ability to enter the software world by anybody innovative whereas not just anybody can enter the telecommunications market because you have to have a massive infrastructure to start or pay to piggyback on someone else's. But on the other hand, if someone develops a cool toy that everyone wants, they have the right to sign an exclusive contract with another company in the hopes that millions of people will jump to that company to play with their new toy.
Also this week, an Australian web filter created by the government at a cost of $84 million was cracked. It took a teenager 30 minutes and still leaves an icon on the computer so parents believe the filter is still working. Let's see, you pit the minds of maybe a few hundred brilliant scientists against the hormones of millions of horny men, I'm going to bet on the men every time. Let's face it, web filters are nice for keeping your ten year old from stumbling across something he shouldn't, but they are never going to keep people from finding stuff that they want to find if they are determined.
And on the pirate front, a recent study claims that music piracy costs the industry $12.5 billion and 71,000 jobs are lost. Reading other people's comments on this were most amusing. First of all, the study did not assume that every song downloaded would have otherwise been bought, they assumed 65% of them would have been bought. I don't know what dark crevice they pulled this number out of. Basically, it means that if a teenager with limited income downloaded 100 albums for free, if he couldn't have pirated them, he would have purchased 65 of them. I don't think 100 albums is too large a number for a lot of teens and college students, but how many of them would have actually bought 65 of those albums otherwise? Buying 65 albums seems a bit high.
The second comment that appeared often on this article related to the fact that the music industry is producing junk that no one will pay for. There's likely a grain of truth to this but I don't buy the argument entirely. If it's crap, you're not going to waste your time on it, even if it's free. If it is good, you'll pay for it. Now, I will buy into the argument that many songs and albums are overpriced which has caused many to turn to pirating songs. But people are still willing to pay for good songs that are reasonably priced or itunes wouldn't have millions and millions of downloads.
And the third and probably most amusing set of comments had to do with the lost money and jobs this piracy causes. As many pointed out, it's not like this money simply disappears because it's not being spent on music. The $12.5 billion supposedly lost is spent on other stuff that wouldn't otherwise have been purchased and creates jobs in those areas. Sure, there might be a few less jobs in the music industry because of it, but there are more in the movie industry or a cell phone company because of this. Even if this money were being saved (which is fairly unlikely considering the average amount people have in savings today) if it is in the bank drawing interest, the bank uses that money to invest in the stock market, helping fund our publicly traded businesses.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Friday, August 3, 2007
The end of TV - not really
There is a new fad for TV - TV that isn't on your television at all but made specifically for your computer. I'm not talking about some hacks on YouTube but professionally done done programs with actual budgets and staff and actors. Some television series have been posting little webisodes for a while now, complimenting their programs and gaining interaction on their websides. But I'm talking about something new.
The internet provides the ability to reach every niche culture out there without worrying about ratings, network executives, or FCC censorship for that matter. Of course it still all comes down to whether it turns a profit or not, but the internet has allowed for unique programming that you won't find even on cable because it isn't the ideal demographic or doesn't fit into a primetime schedule.
Aside from the reasons above, the internet also has an advantage over traditional TV in time. A new TV series may have only a few weeks to catch on with viewers before it gets moved, retooled, or outright cancelled. There are only so many time slots available on the schedule and networks can't waste time with something that looks like a loser. The internet can keep a show posted for as long as they like for virtually no cost except server space. Word of mouth may take some time to spread, but as people catch on to a new program, they don't have to worry about not knowing what is going on - they can start watching from the beginning.
Of course content providers don't have to keep posting stuff for free. They may become subscription based, or they may wait until they complete a season and then release it on DVD. The first site that comes to mind is Red Vs. Blue. It is designed using the video Halo and records player movements and has speech dubbed in. Of course it makes it easy when everyone wears helmets so there is no need to animate lip movement. It's a great series - season 5 is to come out on DVD - and has gained not only approval but sponsorship by Microsoft, the makers of Halo.
Another interesting web project just wrapped up it's first season.
Lonelygirl15 began as a series of YouTube video blogs. Eventually people started wondering if it was real or an interesting plug for an upcoming movie or some other project. It turned out neither was the case. The confessions of a home-schooled 16 year old were really staged by a 19 yr old, but Hollywood wasn't behind it. Instead a couple of people were experimenting with it as new form of online story telling. The truth being revealed, the clips continued to be popular and 260 "episodes" have been published so far. There are even corporate sponsors involved now and the cast has expanded as well as the number of production people.
Of course both of these web TV successes were part good timing, part luck, and everybody originally involved just started out doing it for fun. There is at least one site that is professionally done from the start and is meant exclusively for the web. Sanctuary For All is a new sci-fi show done entirely for an online audience. Starring is Amanda Tapping of Stargate SG-1 fame. To date, six episodes have been posted, and the show already holds the Guinness World Record for most expensive web episode. The show is done entirely with computer graphics with actors filming everything in front of a green screen.
So, does this mean that we're going to be ditching our TV's anytime soon? Probably not. Despite considerable increase in online advertising by companies, the big money is still in television. It's going to be that way for a while. But online shows are going to increase rapidly in the future and we are not far from seeing episodes of some shows that weren't quite ready for prime time hit the internet. But just as radio didn't die at the advent of TV, television won't go away because of online programming.
The internet provides the ability to reach every niche culture out there without worrying about ratings, network executives, or FCC censorship for that matter. Of course it still all comes down to whether it turns a profit or not, but the internet has allowed for unique programming that you won't find even on cable because it isn't the ideal demographic or doesn't fit into a primetime schedule.
Aside from the reasons above, the internet also has an advantage over traditional TV in time. A new TV series may have only a few weeks to catch on with viewers before it gets moved, retooled, or outright cancelled. There are only so many time slots available on the schedule and networks can't waste time with something that looks like a loser. The internet can keep a show posted for as long as they like for virtually no cost except server space. Word of mouth may take some time to spread, but as people catch on to a new program, they don't have to worry about not knowing what is going on - they can start watching from the beginning.
Of course content providers don't have to keep posting stuff for free. They may become subscription based, or they may wait until they complete a season and then release it on DVD. The first site that comes to mind is Red Vs. Blue. It is designed using the video Halo and records player movements and has speech dubbed in. Of course it makes it easy when everyone wears helmets so there is no need to animate lip movement. It's a great series - season 5 is to come out on DVD - and has gained not only approval but sponsorship by Microsoft, the makers of Halo.
Another interesting web project just wrapped up it's first season.
Lonelygirl15 began as a series of YouTube video blogs. Eventually people started wondering if it was real or an interesting plug for an upcoming movie or some other project. It turned out neither was the case. The confessions of a home-schooled 16 year old were really staged by a 19 yr old, but Hollywood wasn't behind it. Instead a couple of people were experimenting with it as new form of online story telling. The truth being revealed, the clips continued to be popular and 260 "episodes" have been published so far. There are even corporate sponsors involved now and the cast has expanded as well as the number of production people.
Of course both of these web TV successes were part good timing, part luck, and everybody originally involved just started out doing it for fun. There is at least one site that is professionally done from the start and is meant exclusively for the web. Sanctuary For All is a new sci-fi show done entirely for an online audience. Starring is Amanda Tapping of Stargate SG-1 fame. To date, six episodes have been posted, and the show already holds the Guinness World Record for most expensive web episode. The show is done entirely with computer graphics with actors filming everything in front of a green screen.
So, does this mean that we're going to be ditching our TV's anytime soon? Probably not. Despite considerable increase in online advertising by companies, the big money is still in television. It's going to be that way for a while. But online shows are going to increase rapidly in the future and we are not far from seeing episodes of some shows that weren't quite ready for prime time hit the internet. But just as radio didn't die at the advent of TV, television won't go away because of online programming.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Nintendo Wii
Alright, I'll be the first to admit that when I first heard about the new control design I thought it was the stupidest thing imaginable. I assumed that Nintendo had become an also-ran in the gaming industry and could no longer compete with Microsoft and Sony. I figured that Nintendo was doing what everyone else always did, which was to just create a more powerful version of their previous system. Gamecube on steroids didn't seem that appealing to me.
Of course the last ten months have shown us just how popular the Wii really is and how wrong foolish people like myself were when we dismissed Nintendo. There are a lot of articles about how Nintendo thinks outside of the box and how they are going to continue to reshape the industry for years to come. What I'm trying to figure out is how so many people only caught all of this in hindsight.
I think there are at least three major components to what happened in the video game wars. The first was a simple matter of economics. Sony priced themselves out of the market for a lot of families when they aimed for the hardcore gamer. Sure, there are lots of teens and college students with disposable income who are into gaming and who are sure to pump millions and millions of dollars into Sony and Microsoft's pockets, but there are many more kids out there that probably couldn't get their parents to swallow a $600 price tag.
The second change in the video game landscape was inevitable but I'm not sure how many people have caught on yet. There is going to be a point where amazing graphics just can't get much better. For the last two years, I've had to do a double take when someone is playing Madden to make sure they are playing a game and not watching an actual football game. How much more lifelike can we get? And in case you missed it, computer power has really slowed down. My five year old Dell still does virtually everything I want it to do and I'm pretty abusive to it at times. Nintendo looked at the landscape and saw that everyone else was equating fun with better graphics (which I don't deny does enhance gameplay sometimes). Nintendo said, let's concentrate on making it more fun.
Virtual reality is the third component in the Wii's rise to the top. We've been seeing some incredible virtual landscapes, Nintendo decided that that were going to instead mimic real people. So instead of a lot of complicated buttons and joysticks, you just motion like you are actually in the game. You swing a golf club like you'd swing a golf club. You play a first person shooter like you're holding a gun. It really feels like you are part of the game rather than just playing one.
So what will the next generation hold? Success always breeds copycats, so expect Microsoft and Sony to build on the Nintendo's success but do so in their own fashion. It's hard to say where Nintendo will head next. My gut says that it will be further down the virtual reality path. But don't expect a Wii 2. Whatever Nintendo does next, it will be something unexpected but intuitive. Something that we should have seen coming but won't until it arrives.
Of course the last ten months have shown us just how popular the Wii really is and how wrong foolish people like myself were when we dismissed Nintendo. There are a lot of articles about how Nintendo thinks outside of the box and how they are going to continue to reshape the industry for years to come. What I'm trying to figure out is how so many people only caught all of this in hindsight.
I think there are at least three major components to what happened in the video game wars. The first was a simple matter of economics. Sony priced themselves out of the market for a lot of families when they aimed for the hardcore gamer. Sure, there are lots of teens and college students with disposable income who are into gaming and who are sure to pump millions and millions of dollars into Sony and Microsoft's pockets, but there are many more kids out there that probably couldn't get their parents to swallow a $600 price tag.
The second change in the video game landscape was inevitable but I'm not sure how many people have caught on yet. There is going to be a point where amazing graphics just can't get much better. For the last two years, I've had to do a double take when someone is playing Madden to make sure they are playing a game and not watching an actual football game. How much more lifelike can we get? And in case you missed it, computer power has really slowed down. My five year old Dell still does virtually everything I want it to do and I'm pretty abusive to it at times. Nintendo looked at the landscape and saw that everyone else was equating fun with better graphics (which I don't deny does enhance gameplay sometimes). Nintendo said, let's concentrate on making it more fun.
Virtual reality is the third component in the Wii's rise to the top. We've been seeing some incredible virtual landscapes, Nintendo decided that that were going to instead mimic real people. So instead of a lot of complicated buttons and joysticks, you just motion like you are actually in the game. You swing a golf club like you'd swing a golf club. You play a first person shooter like you're holding a gun. It really feels like you are part of the game rather than just playing one.
So what will the next generation hold? Success always breeds copycats, so expect Microsoft and Sony to build on the Nintendo's success but do so in their own fashion. It's hard to say where Nintendo will head next. My gut says that it will be further down the virtual reality path. But don't expect a Wii 2. Whatever Nintendo does next, it will be something unexpected but intuitive. Something that we should have seen coming but won't until it arrives.
Hey all
This is my first post and I just thought I'd mention what I hope to accomplish with this blog. Pretty much I want to have a forum to discuss some of the really neat stuff that is going on in the world technology wise. Some of it will eventually shape the world we live in, some will quickly be forgotten, and some will become the object of mocking and scorn for years to come (Segway anyone?).
Aside from just discussing what's cool about the latest technology, I'll attempt to give my opinion on it and how it might affect the future. Basically I'll make a pathetic attempt at being a futurist and hopefully everyone will forget how wrong I was by the time these things come to pass, or rather not pass. That's one advantage to being a futurist - only historians care if you were wrong.
Aside from just discussing what's cool about the latest technology, I'll attempt to give my opinion on it and how it might affect the future. Basically I'll make a pathetic attempt at being a futurist and hopefully everyone will forget how wrong I was by the time these things come to pass, or rather not pass. That's one advantage to being a futurist - only historians care if you were wrong.
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